据《化学周刊》10月19日刊消息，IHS Markit分析师们表示，自今年5月份以来，美国墨西哥湾地区的乙烷价格已翻了一番，而且在2020年前，价格可能仍将维持在目前的高位附近。分析师们解释称，天然气液体(NGLs)分馏能力的增速没有乙烷需求增速快，而且这种情况不会很快得到缓解。尽管美国聚乙烯生产商仍将保持竞争力，但利润率已大幅收窄。

在近来价格飙升之前，美国墨西哥湾地区的乙烷价格一直处于低位，而且基本上没有多大的波动。自2014年年中以来，美国乙烷的月平均价格通常低于25美分/加仑，而今年5月份26.14美分/加仑的平均价格是过去12个月的典型价格。然而，6月份的美国乙烷的月平均价格跃升至32.63美分/加仑，7月份为35.74美分/加仑，8月份为38.98美分/加仑，9月中旬飙升至61.5美分/加仑，之后回落，9月份的平均价格为52.64美分/加仑，较5月平均价格大幅上涨101%。

张春晓 摘译自 《Chemical Week》

原文如下：

Price surge will drive down US ethane advantage into 2020

Ethane prices in the US Gulf Coast region have doubled since May, and they are likely to remain near the current elevated level into 2020, say analysts at IHS Markit. Capacity for the fractionation of natural gas liquids (NGLs) has not grown as quickly as ethane demand, they explain, and the situation will not ease any time soon. Although US polyethylene producers will remain competitive, their margins have narrowed considerably.

Ethane prices had been fairly stable and low before the recent surge. Since mid-2014, the monthly average was regularly below 25 cents/gal, and May’s 26.14 cents/lb was typical of the previous 12 months. In June, however, the monthly average leaped to 32.63 cents/gal, followed by 35.74 in July and 38.98 in August. Ethane spiked as high as 61.5 cents/gal in mid-September before falling back to yield an average of 52.64 cents/gal—up 101% from May.