中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯5月4日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）周五在一份报告中表示，由于海上钻机供大于求，海上油气项目2025年前的平均资本成本仍很有可能比2014年水平低25%。

IEA在海上能源展望报告中强调说，在欧洲尤其是在英国的推动下，海上风力部署自2010年以来已增加了5倍，在2017年达到了187亿瓦特。但是报告说，海上风力的经济潜力仍存在“高不确定性以及对技术成本下降的敏感。”

在常规油气范围内，IEA根据其核心的“新政策方案”预计天然气到2040年将成为海上油气产量的最大组成部分。根据这个方案，海上天然气年产量到2040年将增加到1.7万亿立方米，比过去10年年产1万亿立方米增加了几乎30%，但根据这个方案在2040年前海上天然气产量将增加30%以上。

IEA说，目前的海上钻机日费率已比2014年的水平低了30%至35%，这反映了市场钻机供应过剩。据悉，2016年市场新增了30部新钻机。

原文如下：

Cost outlook supportive for offshore oil and gas: IEA

Average capital costs for offshore oil and gas projects by 2025 are still likely to be 25% below 2014 levels due to an oversupply of offshore rigs, supporting a long-term increase in gas projects in particular, the International Energy Agency said in a report Friday.

The Offshore Energy Outlook also highlighted a five-fold rise in offshore wind deployment since 2010 to 18.7 GW in 2017, led by Europe and particularly the UK, but said the economic potential of offshore wind remained "highly uncertain and sensitive to technology cost declines."

In the conventional oil and gas sphere, the IEA expects gas to become the largest component in offshore hydrocarbon output in 2040 under its central "New Policies Scenario."

Under the scenario annual offshore gas production rises to 1,700 Bcm by 2040, having risen almost 30% to over 1,000 Bcm/year in the last decade. The offshore accounts for just over a quarter of all gas production presently, but rises above 30% by 2040 under the scenario.

The IEA said day rates charged for offshore rigs were now 30-35% lower than in 2014 on average, reflecting an over-supplied market in which 30 new units were delivered in 2016.